The World Agricultural Trade Simulation System WATSIM: An Overview

This paper presents a general overview on the World Agricultural Trade Simulation System WATSIM, the international trade modelling system of the Institute for Agricultural Policy at Bonn University. The system consists of two submodels, dealing with two major aspects of agricultural world markets: In the medium term the impacts of changes in agricultural policies on regional and international markets are of major interest and hence are stressed in the Medium-Term Policy Simulation Model. Developments in natural and socioeconomic variables become even more important for supply and demand of agricultural products in the longer run, depicted in the Long-Term Shift Factor Simulation Model. Before presenting the features of the two sub-models, the main characteristics of the system are briefly discussed, pointing out the importance of using both the database and the partial equilibrium module jointly. Dieses Diskussionspapier gibt einen kurzen Uberblick uber das World Agricultural Trade Simulation System WATSIM, das Handelsmodellsystem des Instituts fur Agrarpolitik der Universitat Bonn. Die beiden Sub-Modelle decken in ihrer zeitlichen und inhaltlichen Differenzierung zwei der wesentlichen Fragestellungen im Bereich der landwirtschaftlichen Weltmarkte ab: Wahrend mittelfristig der Einfluss veranderter Agrarpolitik im Vordergrund steht und deshalb Kern des Medium-Term Policy Simulation Model ist, gewinnen insbesondere auf langere Sicht Veranderungen naturlicher und soziookonomischer Rahmenbedingungen fur die Entwicklung auf den landwirtschaftlichen Markten an Bedeutung. Sie werden im Long-Term Shift Factor Simulation Model dargestellt. Bevor die Besonderheiten der beiden Sub-Modelle beschrieben werden, werden die wesentlichen Charakteristika des Modellsystems in Kurze dargestellt, wobei auf die Bedeutung der gemeinsamen Nutzung von Datenbasis und zentralem Modul zur Bestimmung des partialen Gleichgewichts durch beide Sub-Modelle hingewiesen wird.International Relations/Trade,

Economics and agricultural market impacts of growing biofuel production

This paper analyses the economics of biofuel production and the implications that the accelerating growth in biofuel production in many countries could have on agricultural markets. It shows that production costs of ethanol and biodiesel differ significantly across countries and feedstock crops. These costs often exceed those of fossil fuels. In consequence, the economics of biofuel production depends on public support in most countries. Similarly, land requirements for crops required to enable significant shares of biofuel production in transport fuel consumption are shown to be substantial in many countries given current technologies. An expected growth in biofuel production is, therefore, likely to have a significant increasing impact on world prices for sugar, cereals and oilseeds beyond what is caused by higher crude oil prices alone. The paper points out a number of policy issues that require attention and further analysis to facilitate a fuller discussion of biofuel policies.biofuels, production costs, resource requirements, agricultural market impacts, biofuel policies, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Comparative Analysis of World Market Projections with Special Regard to Wheat Prices

This paper presents a short comparative analysis of USDA and FAPRI projections for world wheat market prices until 2005. The relevance of different model assumptions regarding assumed inflation, exchange rates, policy parameters as well as shifts in demand and production development are discussed. A subsequent section focuses on the problem of a "world market price concept" for evaluating the potential of unsubsidized EU cereal exports. The Annex provides more detailed information on model assumptions and a comparison of other projected values, also including agricultural products other than wheat. Dieses Diskussionspapier stellt eine kurze vergleichende Analyse aktueller USDA- und FAPRI- Projektionen von Weltmarktpreisen fur Weizen bis 2005 vor. Die Relevanz verschiedener Modellannahmen hinsichtlich Inflation, Wechselkurs, Politikparameter und Bestimmungsgrossen von Angebot und Nachfrage werden diskutiert. Einige Uberlegungen zur Problematik eines "Weltmarktpreiskonzeptes" bei der Abschatzung des Potentials unsubventionierter EU Getreideexporte schliessen sich an. Der Anhang stellt detailliertere Informationen zu Modellannahmen sowie den Vergleich weiterer projezierter Kennzahlen bereit, die auch andere Agrarprodukte einschliessen.Demand and Price Analysis,

How well established is research on organised crime in Germany?

Lampe, Klaus von How well established is research on organised crime in Germany? / Klaus von Lampe, Susanne Knickmeier // Constructing and organising crime in Europe / Petrus C. van Duyne, Alexey Serdyuk, Georgios A. Antonopoulos, Jackie H. Harvey, Klaus von Lampe (Eds.); Kharkiv National University of Internal Affairs, Northumbria University, Teesside University, Utrecht University. – Chicago-Kharkiv : Eleven International Publishing, Kharkiv National University of Internal Affairs, 2019. - P. 179-203. - DOI: https://doi.org/10.32631/ccc19.08.Цей розділ складається з двох основних частин. У першій частині подано короткий огляд ситуації з організованою злочинністю в Німеччині, представленої в офіційних звітах і ЗМІ. Друга частина описує результати систематичного аналізу результатів роботи дослідників з Німеччини, що займаються організованою злочинністю.This chapter is divided into two main parts. The first part provides a brief overview of the situation of organised crime in Germany as it presents itself in official and media accounts. The second part describes findings of a systematic analysis of the output of researchers based in Germany who study organised crime.Эта глава состоит из двух основных частей. В первой части представлен краткий обзор ситуации с организованной преступностью в Германии, представленной в официальных отчетах и СМИ. Вторая часть описывает результаты систематического анализа результатов работы исследователей из Германии, занимающихся организованной преступностью

`The dragon breathes smoke': cigarette counterfeiting in the People's Republic of China

This article aims at providing an account of the social organization of the cigarette counterfeiting business in the People's Republic of China—a business that has been feeding the cigarette black markets around the globe. Specifically, we aim to exhibit the scale and nature of cigarette counterfeiting in mainland China, describe the practices and actors in the different phases of the trade, and examine the role of corruption and violence in the particular business. We argue that cigarette counterfeiting is one of the side effects of China's reform and ‘opening up’ policy, and a feature of the country's economic development process

The Janus-Faces of Cross-Border Crime in Europe

Europe is changing rapidly, which may also have a bearing on its criminal landscape. This does not mean that all sorts of new crime are emerging: a large part of the crimes remains profit-oriented and is committed by known modus operandi. That is the old face of crime. Amidst the traditional landscape new faces of crime can be identified. The internet is such a new face which emerges among others in the sex industry. This is as old as the human race, with all the related abuses and exploitation. But the internet gives it also a new face because of its broad reach and related opportunities, negative as well as positive. This volume provides other examples of this two-faced Janus head of crime. Old criminal trades, such as the illegal cigarette market, synthetic drugs and criminal exploitation of human labour, but also new criminal specialisations, new professional and industrial skills developed by ‘old’ ethnic minorities on various crime markets in central Europe. Meanwhile, the on-going illegal migrations continue to exert their influence on the perception of crime: while the actual prevalence of most types of crime decreases, fear of crime continues to increase. The flow of migrants is unrelated to this outcome but it impacts nevertheless on the perception of crime. This volume of the 18th Cross-border Crime Colloquium, held in Bratislava in the spring of 2017, contains the peer-reviewed contributions of 22 European experts and up-and-coming researchers. Their chapters cover a broad field of crime in which the double faced Janus head can be discerned: illegal migrants, criminal markets, corruption, money laundering and organised crime, highlighting many new aspects

“I\u27m gonna get me a loosie” Understanding single cigarette purchases by adult smokers in a disadvantaged section of New York City

This study seeks to update and expand our understanding of the perceptions and purchasing patterns of smokers of single cigarettes (‘loosies’) in disadvantaged urban areas. Semi-structured guides were used in thirteen focus groups with 67 self-identified adult smokers from the South Bronx section of New York City in summer 2013. There is wideavailability ofsingle cigarettes inthe South Bronx, withlegitimate stores overwhelmingly being the preferred venue for purchases. Single cigarettes are sold at higher per-unit prices than illicit packs. However, buyers of single cigarettes can achieve cost savings compared to legal, fully taxed cigarette packs. Apart from cost-savings, smokers opt for single cigarettes to reduce their personal cigarette consumption. There is a general perception of market resilience despite law enforcement intervention. However, law enforcement has a limiting effect on access to single cigarettes outside of an individual smoker\u27s immediate neighborhood. The findings suggest that single cigarette sales are an important element of the illicit cigarette market in disadvantaged communities which should not be ignored in future research on the nature and extent of cigarette tax avoidance and evasion

Sorologia pareada por imunofluorescência e excreção de antígeno de rotavirus na diarréia aguda infantil

A serological study was carried out to evaluate the causal relationship of acute diarrhoea and rotavirus in children under five years of age. The rotaviral infection was demonstrated in paired sera by determining the antibody titers by immunofluorescence test (IF). Bovine rotavirus-infected MA-104 cell culture was used as substratum for IF. Out of 80 paired sera it was shown that 23 (28.75%) presented seroconversion, 19 (23.75%) samples showed a twofold increase in their titers and 38 (47.5%) had no increase in rotavirus antibody. This result is discussed on the light of previously obtained results on viral antigen detection by counterimmunoelectrosmophoresis (CIEOP).Realizamos este estudo para avaliar a relação causai diarréia aguda e rotavirus em crianças abaixo de cinco anos de idade. A infecção viral foi caracterizada pela sorologia pareada, por meio de titulação de anticorpos anti-rotavírus pela reação de imunofluorescência indireta (IF) nos soros dos pacientes. Utilizamos como substrato para a reação células MA-104 infectadas com o rotavirus bovino cepa UK. De 80 amostras de soros pareados, verificamos que 23 amostras (28,75%) apresentaram soroconversão, 19 amostras (23,75%) tiveram elevação no título de 2 vezes e em 38 amostras (47,5%) não observamos elevação no título de anticorpos anti-rotavírus. Estes resultados são confrontados com os resultados previamente obtidos na detecção do antígeno de rotavírus nas fezes, dos mesmos pacientes, pela técnica de contraimunoeletroforese (CIEOP)